Long COVID Disability Burden in US Adults: YLDs and NIH Funding Relative to Other Conditions (preprint)

BackgroundLong COVID (LC) is novel, debilitating and likely chronic. Yet, scant data exist about its disability burden to guide scientific research and public health planning. We estimated Long COVIDs non-fatal disease burden in US adults and its FY2024 actual: burden-commensurate research funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) relative to other conditions, and biological sex. MethodsWe present YLDs/100,000 for 70 NIH Research, Condition, and Disease Categories (RCDCs). Prevalence of disabling Long COVID was obtained from cross sectional surveys of representative samples of US adults, from September 2022 to August 2023. Disabling Long COVID was defined as incident symptoms persisting more than 3 months post-COVID, that significantly compromise daily activities. We calculated burden-commensurate funding for the top YLD conditions and for female vs. male dominant conditions. FindingsDisabling Long COVID was reported by 1.5% (n= 10,401) of n=757,580 respondents: Compared to the overall sample, those with disabling LC disproportionately identify as female (64.4% vs. 51.4%) and experiencing disability (80.8% vs. 52.9%) anxiety (57.5% vs. 23.8%) and depression (51.3% vs.18.5%). It ranked in the top 25% of YLDs at 320/100,000, between Alzheimers (279.4/100,000) and asthma (355.7/100,000) but received just 10% of its actual: YLD-commensurate funding. Only 5 conditions received less actual: burden: commensurate funding, including Myalgic Encephalitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (<1%), another post-viral, female-dominant condition. InterpretationLC has debilitated 3.8 million (weighted frequency) US adults. Research funding for it, like other female dominant conditions, lags behind its disability burden. Research in ContextEvidence before this study - We analyzed Long-COVIDs (LC) non-fatal disease burden in the US--represented by YLD (years lived with disability= prevalence x disability weight) -- and National Institutes of Health (NIH) research 2024 funding relative to other conditions. We searched PubMed through 11/28/2023 for Long COVID prevalence (US), and Long COVID disability and disease burden (not US-specific). The keywords "years lived with disability" + "COVID" yielded n= 38 articles (11/29/23); but most referenced "disability-adjusted life years" (DALYs) in other countries. Similarly, "disease burden" + Long COVID yielded 23 papers, but no US YLD data. See Supplement 1 for meta-analyses, systematic reviews and US studies of Long COVID prevalence and impact. We instead sourced YLD data from the US Census Bureaus Household Pulse Survey (HPS) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) /Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Long COVID Study Group. The HPS queries adults about Long COVID-related symptoms and their impact on daily activities. We applied the IHME/GBDs estimated Long COVID disability weight of 0.21 and harmonized it with our LC case definition from the HPS data in consultation with IHME/GBD researchers. To harmonize IHME/GBD disability weights for non-LC diseases/conditions with the NIHs terminology, we consulted with NIH staff. LC definition and measurement affects prevalence and burden estimates; our use of high-quality data sources and transparency in reporting how they were applied reduces the risk of biased assumptions. Added value of this study- Long COVID is a chronic debilitating condition. While there is ample research on COVIDs acute illness and loss of life, there are no population-based data on its disability burden. We provide that data. To guide scientific research and public health planning, we report YLDs associated with disabling Long COVID (i.e., symptoms significantly limit activity), and; compare it to other conditions YLDs, NIH funding, and female-vs. male-dominance. It ranked in the top 25% of YLDs at 320/100,000, between Alzheimers (279.4/100,000) and asthma (355.7/100,000) but received just 10% of its YLD-commensurate funding. Only 5 conditions received less burden-commensurate funding; 3/5 were female-dominant, including Myalgic Encephalitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) at <1%, another post-viral condition that shares significant overlap with Long COVID. Overall, median funding/YLD was >= 5 times greater for male-vs. female-dominant conditions. Implications of all the available evidence-Nearly 4 million US adults (weighted frequency) live with disabling Long COVID. They disproportionately identify as female and as having a disability, anxiety and depression. Yet NIH funding for diagnostic and treatment research for Long COVID hasnt kept pace with its disability burden.

Lung ultrasound score as a predictor of failure to wean COVID-19 patients off mechanical ventilation: a prospective observational study (preprint)

Background The lung ultrasound score was developed for rapidly assessing the extent of lung ventilation, and it can predict failure to wean various types of patients off mechanical ventilation. Whether it is also effective for COVID-19 patients is unclear.Methods This single-center, prospective, observational study was conducted to assess the ability of the 12-region lung ultrasound score to predict failure to wean COVID-19 patients off ventilation. In parallel, we assessed whether right hemidiaphragmatic excursion or previously published predictors of weaning failure can apply to these patients. Predictive ability was assessed in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).Results Among the 35 patients in the study, 12 patients (37%) could not be weaned off mechanical ventilation. The lung ultrasound score predicted these failures with an AUC of 0.885 (95% CI 0.770–0.999, p < 0.001), and a threshold score of 10 provided specificity of 72.7% and sensitivity of 92.3%. AUCs were lower for previously published predictors of weaning failure, and right hemidiaphragmatic excursion did not differ significantly between the two groups.Conclusions The lung ultrasound score can accurately predict failure to wean critically ill COVID-19 patients off mechanical ventilation, whereas assessment of right hemidiaphragmatic excursion does not appear helpful in this regard.Trial registration: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05706441

Innate immune sensing of self-derived double-stranded RNA by RIG-I-MAVS-TNF-α regulates the survival and senescence fate of SARS-2-S syncytia (preprint)

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains an important health threat. Syncytial formation by infected cells mediated by the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (SARS-2-S) is a hallmark of COVID-19-associated pathology. Although SARS-CoV-2 infection evokes cellular senescence, as in other viruses, the direct link between SARS-2-S-induced syncytia with senescence in the absence of viral infection and their senescence fate determinants remain unknown. Here, we show that syncytia formed by cells expressing exogenously delivered SARS-2-S exhibited a senescence-like phenotype in vitro and that SARS-2-S mRNA induced senescence phenotype in vivo. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) containing SARS-2-S also induced senescent syncytium formation independent of the de novo synthesis of SARS-2-S. Mechanistically, we show that the accumulation of endogenous dsRNA, partially that whose formation is induced by activation of the unfolded protein response (UPR), in SARS-2-S syncytia triggers RIG-I-MAVS signalling to drive the TNF-α-dependent survival and senescence fate of SARS-2-S syncytia. Our findings suggest that the fusogenic ability of SARS-2-S might contribute to the side effects of particular COVID-19 vaccines or perhaps long COVID-19 syndrome and provide insight into how these effects can be prevented.

Vaccination and three non-pharmaceutical interventions determine the dynamics of COVID-19 in the US

The rapid rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine raises the question of whether and when the ongoing pandemic could be eliminated with vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Despite advances in the impact of NPIs and the conceptual belief that NPIs and vaccination control COVID-19 infections, we lack evidence to employ control theory in real-world social human dynamics in the context of disease spreading. We bridge the gap by developing a new analytical framework that treats COVID-19 as a feedback control system with the NPIs and vaccination as the controllers and a computational model that maps human social behaviors into input signals. This approach enables us to effectively predict the epidemic spreading in 381 Metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the US by learning our model parameters utilizing the time series NPIs (i.e., the stay-at-home order, face-mask wearing, and testing) data. This model allows us to optimally identify three NPIs to predict infections accurately in 381 MSAs and avoid over-fitting. Our numerical results demonstrate our approach’s excellent predictive power with R2 > 0.9 for all the MSAs regardless of their sizes, locations, and demographic status. Our methodology allows us to estimate the needed vaccine coverage and NPIs for achieving Re to a manageable level and how the variants of concern diminish the likelihood for disease elimination at each location. Our analytical results provide insights into the debates surrounding the elimination of COVID-19. NPIs, if tailored to the MSAs, can drive the pandemic to an easily containable level and suppress future recurrences of epidemic cycles.

Immunological findings in a group of individuals who were non-responders to standard two-dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccines (preprint)

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was declared a pandemic. The virus has infected more than 505 million people and caused more than 6 million deaths. However, data on non-responders to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the general population are limited. The objective of the study is to comprehensively compare the immunological characteristics of non-responders to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the 18-59 years with that in the 60 years and older using internationally recognized cutoff values. Participants included 627 individuals who received physical examinations and volunteered to participate in COVID-19 vaccination from the general population. The main outcome was an effective seroconversion characterized by anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG level of at least 4-fold increase from baseline. Profiling of naive immune cells was analyzed prior to vaccination to demonstrate baseline immunity. Outcomes of effective seroconversion in the 18-59 years with that in the 60 years and older were compared. The quantitative level of the anti-spike IgG was significantly lower in the 60 years and older and in men among the 18-59 years. There were 7.5% of non-responders among the 18-59 years and 11.7% of non-responders in the 60 years and older using the 4-fold increase parameter. The effective seroconversion rate was significantly related to the level of certain immune cells before vaccination, such as CD4 cells, CD8 cells and B cells and the age. An individual with a titer of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG that is below 50 BAU/mL might be considered a non-responder between 14-90 days after the last vaccine dose. Booster vaccination or additional protective measures should be recommended for non-responders as soon as possible to reduce disease severity and mortality.

Interpretation of non-responders to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines using WHO International Standard (preprint)

ABSTRACT Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a global pandemic with more than 485 millions infected. Questions about non-responders to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines remain unaddressed. Here, we report data from people after administering the complete dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines using the World Health Organization International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin. Our study showed that immune cells such as CD4 cells, CD8 cells, and B cells and anti-spike immunoglobulin G levels were significantly reduced in the elderly. There were 7.5% non-responders among the 18–59 yr group and 11.7% in the ≥60 yr group. A titer of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike immunoglobulin G is blew 50 BAU/mL to be considered as non-responders at intervals of 30 to 90 days after the last vaccine dose. Booster vaccination may be recommended for non-responders to reduce the disease severity and mortality.

Covid Vaccines for Children with Developmental Disabilities: Parent Survey of Willingness and Concerns (preprint)

Objective While 1-in-6 US children has a developmental disability (DD), and such children are disproportionately affected by COVID-19, little is known about their vaccination status. We surveyed US parents of children with DDs to ascertain willingness and concerns regarding COVID-19 vaccines. Methods An online survey was distributed to national, statewide, and regional DD networks from June-September 2021. (Vaccines were authorized for adolescents in May 2021.) We report associations between vaccine willingness and concerns and: race/ethnicity, child age, in-person schooling, routine/flu vaccinations, and DD diagnoses. Willingness was categorized as Got /Will Get ASAP (high), Wait and See/Only if Required, or Definitely Not. Results 393 parents (51.2% white) responded. Willingness differed by age (p

GP73 is a glucogenic hormone that contributes to SARS-CoV-2-induced hyperglycemia (preprint)

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection induces new-onset diabetes and severe metabolic complications of pre-existing diabetes. The pathogenic mechanism underlying this is incompletely understood. Here, we provided evidence linking circulating GP73 with the exaggerated gluconeogenesis triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection. We found that SARS-CoV-2 infection or glucotoxic conditions increased GP73 production and secretion. Secreted GP73 then trafficked to the liver and kidney to stimulate gluconeogenesis through the cAMP/PKA pathway. By using global phosphoproteomics, we found a drastic remodeling of the PKA kinase hub exerted by GP73. Notably, plasma GP73 levels were elevated and positively correlated with blood glucose in patients with COVID19 and diabetes. Neutralization of circulating GP73 in serum of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 or with diabetes reduced excessive gluconeogenesis in cultured hepatocytes, and lowered blood glucose levels in animal models of diabetes. Ablation of GP73 from whole animals has a profound glucose-lowering effect secondary to reduced gluconeogenesis. Thus, GP73 is a key glucogenic hormone contributing to SARS-CoV-2-induced glucose abnormality.

GP73 is a glucogenic hormone regulating SARS-CoV-2-induced hyperglycemia (preprint)

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection induces new-onset diabetes and severe metabolic complications of pre-existing diabetes. The pathogenic mechanism underlying this is incompletely understood. Here, we provided evidence linking circulating GP73 with the exaggerated gluconeogenesis triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection. We found that SARS-CoV-2 infection or glucotoxic condition increased the cellular secretion of GP73. Secreted GP73 trafficked to the liver and kidney to stimulate gluconeogenesis through cAMP/PKA pathway. By using global phosphoproteomics, we found a drastic remodeling of PKA kinase hub exerted by GP73. Notably, COVID-19 patients showed pathologically elevated plasma GP73, and neutralization of the secreted GP73 inhibited enhanced PKA signaling and glucose production associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. GP73 blockade also reduced gluconeogenesis and lowered hyperglycemia in type 2 (T2D) diabetic mice. Therefore, our findings provide novel insight into the roles of GP73 as a key glucogenic hormone and mechanistic clues underlying the development of SARS-CoV-induced glucose abnormalities.

COVID-19 Vaccine Perceptions in New York State’s Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities Community (preprint)

Background People with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) are at disproportionate risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes, particularly those living in congregate care settings. Yet, there is limited data on vaccine perceptions in the disability community. Objective To explore COVID-19 vaccine perceptions in individuals with IDD, their family members, and those who work with them, to inform a statewide vaccine information and messaging project. Methods A national survey, adapted for the IDD community, was distributed to a convenience sample of IDD organizations throughout New York State, in five languages. Constructs included vaccine intention, reasons for vaccine hesitancy, and trusted sources of vaccine information. Zip code data were used to map respondent location and vaccine preferences. Results Of n= 825 respondents, approximately 75% intended to or had received the vaccine, across roles (i.e., people with disabilities, family members, direct care workers) and racial/ethnic groups. Greater vaccine hesitancy was reported in younger individuals and those making decisions on behalf of a person with IDD. Concerns included side effects and the swiftness of vaccine development. Black and Hispanic participants had heightened concerns about being an “experiment” for the vaccine. Trusted sources of information included healthcare providers and family members. Respondents who intended/got the vaccine were distributed throughout the state. Conclusions Vaccine preferences in this New York State disability community sample align with national data. Identified concerns suggest the need for community education that addresses misperceptions. Age and race differences in perspectives highlight the need for tailored education, delivered by trusted messengers.

Rapid evaluation of neutralizing antibodies in COVID-19 patients (preprint)

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic calls for a method to rapidly and conveniently evaluate neutralizing antibody (NAb) activity in patients. Here, an up-conversion phosphor technology-based point-of-care testing (UPT-POCT) and a microneutralization assay were employed to detect total antibodies against the receptor-binding domain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein and NAb activity in COVID-19 patients' sera, respectively, in order to determine if UPT-POCT could be used as a surrogate method for rapid evaluation of serum NAb activity in COVID-19 patients. In total, 519 serum samples from 213 recovered and 99 polymerase chain reaction re-positive (RP) COVID-19 patients were used in this report. We found that UPT-POCT reporting values correlated highly with NAb titers from 1:4 to 1:1024, with a correlation coefficient r = 0.9654 (P < 0.001), as well as protection rate against RP (r = 0.9886, P < 0.0001). As a significant point for reducing re-positive rate, UPT-POCT values of 4.380, corresponding to NAb titer of 1:64, may be appropriate as an indicator for evaluating high efficiency of protection. This study demonstrates that the quantitative lateral flow based UPT-POCT, could be used to rapidly evaluate NAb titer, which is of importance for assessing vaccine immunization efficacy, herd immunity, and screening patient plasma for high NAbs.

SARS-CoV-2 manipulates the SR-B1-mediated HDL uptake pathway for its entry (preprint)

The recently emerged pathogenic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread rapidly, leading to a global COVID-19 pandemic. Binding of the viral spike protein (SARS-2-S) to cell surface receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) mediates host cell infection. In the present study, we demonstrate that in addition to ACE2, the S1 subunit of SARS-2-S binds to HDL and that SARS-CoV-2 hijacks the SR-B1-mediated HDL uptake pathway to facilitate its entry. SR-B1 facilitates SARS-CoV-2 entry into permissive cells by augmenting virus attachment. MAb (monoclonal antibody)-mediated blocking of SARS-2-S-HDL binding and SR-B1 antagonists strongly inhibit HDL-enhanced SARS-CoV-2 infection. Notably, SR-B1 is co-expressed with ACE2 in human pulmonary and extrapulmonary tissues. These findings revealed a novel mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 entry and could provide a new target to treat SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein binding to human, pet, farm animals, and putative intermediate hosts ACE2 and ACE2 receptors (preprint)

The emergence of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, resulted in a pandemic. Here, we used recently released X-ray structures of human ACE2 bound to the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein (S) from SARS-CoV-2 to predict its binding to ACE2 proteins from different animals, including pets, farm animals, and putative intermediate hosts of SARS-CoV-2. Comparing the interaction sites of ACE2 proteins known to serve or not serve as receptor allows to define residues important for binding. From the 20 amino acids in ACE2 that contact S up to seven can be replaced and ACE2 can still function as the SARS-CoV-2 receptor. These variable amino acids are clustered at certain positions, mostly at the periphery of the binding site, while changes of the invariable residues prevent S-binding or infection of the respective animal. Some ACE2 proteins even tolerate the loss or the acquisition of N-glycosylation sites located near the S-interface. Of note, pigs and dogs which are not or not effectively infected, respectively, have only a few changes in the binding site have relatively low levels of ACE2 in the respiratory tract. Comparison of the RBD of S of SARS-CoV-2 with viruses from bat and pangolin revealed that the latter contains only one substitution, whereas the bat virus exhibits five. However, ACE2 of pangolin exhibit seven changes relative to human ACE2, a similar number of substitutions is present in ACE2 of bats, raccoon, and civet suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 may not especially adapted to ACE2 of any of its putative intermediate hosts. These analyses provide new insight into the receptor usage and animal source/origin of SARS-COV-2. IMPORTANCESARS-CoV-2 is threatening people worldwide and there are no drugs or vaccines available to mitigate its spread. The origin of the virus is still unclear and whether pets and livestock can be infected and transmit SARS-CoV-2 are important and unknown scientific questions. Effective binding to the host receptor ACE2 is the first prerequisite for infection of cells and determines the host range. Our analysis provides a framework for the prediction of potential hosts of SARS-CoV-2. We found that ACE2 from species known to support SARS-CoV-2 infection tolerate many amino acid changes indicating that the species barrier might be low. However, the lower expression of ACE2 in the upper respiratory tract of some pets and livestock means more research and monitoring should be done to explore the animal source of infection and the risk of potential cross-species transmission. Finally, the analysis also showed that SARS-CoV-2 may not specifically adapted to any of its putative intermediate hosts.

Evaluation of recombinant nucleocapsid and spike proteins for serological diagnosis of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (preprint)

Background: The colloidal gold immunochromatography assay (GICA) is a rapid diagnostic tool for novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections. However, with significant numbers of false negatives, improvements to GICA are needed. Methods: Six recombinant HCoV-19 nucleocapsid and spike proteins were prepared and evaluated. The optimal proteins were employed to develop a sandwich-format GICA strip to detect total antibodies (IgM and IgG) against HCoV-19. GICA performance was assessed with comparison of viral RNA detection. Results: Recombinant HCoV-19 proteins were obtained, including three prokaryotically expressed rN, rN1, rN2 nucleocapsid proteins, and three eukaryotically expressed rS1, rS-RBD, rS-RBD-mFc spike proteins. The recombinant proteins with the highest ELISA titers (rS1 and rS-RBD-mFc) against coronavirus-specific IgM and IgG were chosen for GICA development. The GICA has a sensitivity and specificity of 86.89% (106/122) and 99.39% (656/660), respectively. Furthermore, 65.63% (21/32) of the clinically confirmed but RT-PCR negative samples were GICA positive. Conclusions: The eukaryotically-expressed spike proteins (rS1and rS-RBD-mFc) are more suitable than the prokaryotically expressed nucleocapsid proteins for HCoV-19 serological diagnosis. The GICA sandwich used to detect total antibodies is a powerful complement to the current standard RNA-based tests.